Conflict

Russia–Ukraine war

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Analysis

Russian drone and missile strikes have killed at least eight civilians in Ukraine, while intelligence agencies warn of an increasing threat of Russian hybrid attacks across Europe. These developments highlight the widening scope of the conflict, raising concerns about civilian safety and the stability of regional infrastructure. Observers are now watching for how NATO members respond to these sabotage incidents and whether international diplomatic efforts at the G20 summit can address the ongoing humanitarian crisis.

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Early reports

Forecast

Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15?
No formal condemnation 61%
Formal condemnation adopted 39%

Deadline Jan 15, 2027

Poll

Would you support a ceasefire that freezes current front lines?

Poll

Should Western countries keep sending weapons to Ukraine?

How the odds moved

Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15?

Formal condemnation adopted 39%No formal condemnation 61%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 45% chance
    G20 fails to reach consensus on final communique If it happens: ↑ No formal condemnation ↓ Formal condemnation adopted
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 60% chance
    China and India issue joint statement on 'peaceful resolution' If it happens: ↑ No formal condemnation ↓ Formal condemnation adopted
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    EU members refuse to sign G20 statement without condemnation If it happens: ↑ Formal condemnation adopted ↓ No formal condemnation
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    UNGA schedules emergency special session on Ukraine If it happens: ↑ Formal condemnation adopted ↓ No formal condemnation
    Will it happen by Jan 15?

Started at 39% / 61% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 15, 2027

Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15?

Formal condemnation adopted 39%
No formal condemnation 61%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

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  1. New forecast: Will the UN General Assembly or G20 adopt a resolution or joint declaration formally condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine by 2027-01-15? Starting odds: Formal condemnation adopted 39%, No formal condemnation 61%.

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