Conflict

Gaza war and ceasefire

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Analysis

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly, where he rejected genocide allegations as a "lie" and faced walkouts from delegates and protests outside the venue. This diplomatic friction highlights deepening international polarization and growing isolation regarding the conflict, which continues to impact regional stability and public sentiment. Observers are now watching for further diplomatic fallout and the ongoing military situation in both Gaza and the West Bank.

0 stories 0 outlets ↑ Getting worse
Early reports

Forecast

Will a formal, multi-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas be implemented by 2027-01-15?
No formal ceasefire 72%
Ceasefire implemented 28%

Deadline Jan 15, 2027

Poll

Who should govern Gaza after the war?

Poll

What should come first in Gaza?

How the odds moved

Will a formal, multi-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas be implemented by 2027-01-15?

Ceasefire implemented 28%No formal ceasefire 72%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 22% chance
    Partial hostage-for-prisoner exchange completed If it happens: ↑ Ceasefire implemented ↓ No formal ceasefire
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 15% chance
    Israeli governing coalition loses majority If it happens: ↑ Ceasefire implemented
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 12% chance
    Israel announces withdrawal from Philadelphi Corridor If it happens: ↑ Ceasefire implemented ↓ No formal ceasefire
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 8% chance
    UNSC passes binding ceasefire enforcement resolution If it happens: ↑ Ceasefire implemented ↓ No formal ceasefire
    Will it happen by Jan 15?

Started at 28% / 72% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 15, 2027

Will a formal, multi-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas be implemented by 2027-01-15?

Ceasefire implemented 28%
No formal ceasefire 72%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

Ask @zoose anything about Gaza

  1. New forecast: Will a formal, multi-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas be implemented by 2027-01-15? Starting odds: Ceasefire implemented 28%, No formal ceasefire 72%.

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