Economy

Inflation and cost of living

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Analysis

Rising mortgage rates have surpassed 7% for the first time in 20 months, further straining housing affordability for Americans already grappling with stagnant wages and high prices. While shoppers are increasingly turning to bulk retailers like Costco to manage expenses, reports of price discrepancies at major convenience chains and limited grocery access in some areas highlight ongoing challenges for household budgets. Moving forward, observers are monitoring potential policy shifts regarding energy exports and legislative efforts to increase grocery store competition.

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Early reports

Forecast

What will be the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States on January 15, 2027?
Between 6.0% and 7.0% 43%
Above 7.0% 37%
Below 6.0% 21%

Deadline Jan 15, 2027

Poll

What should be the main tool to bring prices down?

Poll

Which rising cost hits your budget hardest right now?

How the odds moved

What will be the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States on January 15, 2027?

Above 7.0% 37%Between 6.0% and 7.0% 43%Below 6.0% 21%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    Federal Reserve raises target rate in November If it happens: ↑ Above 7.0% ↓ Between 6.0% and 7.0% ↓ Below 6.0%
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 35% chance
    October CPI inflation exceeds 0.3% month-over-month If it happens: ↑ Above 7.0% ↓ Below 6.0%
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 20% chance
    US unemployment rate reaches 4.5% or higher If it happens: ↑ Below 6.0% ↓ Above 7.0%
    Will it happen by Jan 15?
  • Possible · not happened 30% chance
    10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.8% If it happens: ↑ Below 6.0% ↑ Between 6.0% and 7.0% ↓ Above 7.0%
    Will it happen by Jan 15?

Started at 37% / 43% / 21% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Jan 15, 2027

What will be the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States on January 15, 2027?

Above 7.0% 37%
Between 6.0% and 7.0% 43%
Below 6.0% 21%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

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  1. New forecast: What will be the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the United States on January 15, 2027? Starting odds: Above 7.0% 37%, Between 6.0% and 7.0% 43%, Below 6.0% 21%.

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