Conflict

China, Taiwan and US–China tension

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Analysis

President Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping for a high-profile state visit in Washington, D.C., featuring a formal dinner and an announcement that China will send two giant pandas to Zoo Atlanta. This diplomatic engagement, which included a rare tarmac greeting, signals a focus on bilateral relations despite some criticism from U.S. lawmakers regarding the event's scale. Observers will be watching for concrete policy outcomes from the summit discussions between the two leaders.

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Early reports

Forecast

Will the United States and China sign a formal bilateral trade agreement or memorandum of understanding regarding tariffs before March 25, 2027?
No formal agreement signed 61%
Formal agreement or MOU signed 39%

Deadline Mar 25, 2027

Poll

If China blockaded Taiwan, how should the US respond?

Forecast poll

Will the U.S. and China announce a new bilateral trade agreement by December 31st?

Forecast · closes Dec 24
Readers say yes –
70%

Reader odds appear once enough people forecast · resolves automatically from reported evidence.

How the odds moved

Will the United States and China sign a formal bilateral trade agreement or memorandum of understanding regarding tariffs before March 25, 2027?

Formal agreement or MOU signed 39%No formal agreement signed 61%

No moves yet. The odds change only when one of the events below is confirmed by at least two outlets or an official source.

What would move the odds

These are possible future events Zoose is watching for, not news. None has happened unless it is marked Confirmed.

  • Possible · not happened 25% chance
    USTR announces specific tariff reductions If it happens: ↑ Formal agreement or MOU signed ↓ No formal agreement signed
    Will it happen by Mar 25?
  • Possible · not happened 40% chance
    China announces record US agricultural purchases If it happens: ↑ Formal agreement or MOU signed ↓ No formal agreement signed
    Will it happen by Mar 25?
  • Possible · not happened 15% chance
    Major military standoff in Taiwan Strait If it happens: ↑ No formal agreement signed ↓ Formal agreement or MOU signed
    Will it happen by Mar 25?
  • Possible · not happened 45% chance
    Joint economic working group meeting concludes with 'consensus' If it happens: ↑ Formal agreement or MOU signed ↓ No formal agreement signed
    Will it happen by Mar 25?

Started at 39% / 61% on Sep 25. Each event can fire once.

Make your forecast
Scenarios to Mar 25, 2027

Will the United States and China sign a formal bilateral trade agreement or memorandum of understanding regarding tariffs before March 25, 2027?

Formal agreement or MOU signed 39%
No formal agreement signed 61%
Your call: 65%

Odds move when a signpost is confirmed by the news.

Discussion

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  1. New forecast: Will the United States and China sign a formal bilateral trade agreement or memorandum of understanding regarding tariffs before March 25, 2027? Starting odds: Formal agreement or MOU signed 39%, No formal agreement signed 61%.

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